Hattix

The military doctrine during the Cold War and continuing today is MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction. It states that were one side to attack the other, overwhelming and immediate retaliation would result. It was MAD which kept an uneasy peace in the post-WWII years and continues to keep Russia and the US from blowing each other up to this day.

However, the US are tired of keeping the peace and want to achieve something which destroys the concept of MAD: A first strike capability. First strike capacity means that one side is able to launch a strike on the other without fear of crippling retaliation. It makes war all the more likely. The side lacking first strike would feel extremely threatened and the side with first strike would feel they could attack with impunity. The end result is a massive breakdown in stability.

It’s exactly this that the US is seeking to achieve. Under the pretense of defending against missiles from Iran (what missiles?), the US are building missile interception installations in Czech Republic and Poland. Which, I may remind the reader, are nowhere near Iran (nor on a ballistic flightpath from Iran to the US, should Iran ever have that capability) but very much near Russia.

For their part, the Russians are very annoyed and correctly state that the goal is to undermine the global balance of power and global stability. Of course, claims like this need some justification, so let’s give it.

The US counts among its enemies Iran, North Korea and a few others. Iran have missiles with a rough 1,000km range, not enough to even threaten Turkey, let alone Poland. North Korea’s missiles have a greater range but still only regional. They could threaten South Korea and Japan, but that’s about it. North Korea are also entirely in the wrong hemisphere. Iran’s threat is very real, Israel and the US have been trash talking them for the last five years. However, Iran lacks ballistic missiles and the expertise to produce them. The only power in the vicinity with the expertise, the resources and the hardware to warrant anti-missile defences is Russia.

I’m no fan of Moscow, but I find it very hard to disagree with the Russian president when he says “The deployment of new anti-missile forces in Europe has the Russian federation as its aim”

The tension between Russia and Georgia has finally spilled out into open warfare. Ossetia has its roots as one of the many provinces which united into nations as the Renaissance swept Europe and the near-East. Ossetia, both North and South, were part of the USSR before its dissolution and North Ossetia is now part of Russia, however South Ossetia took a different view. When Georgia exercised its right to self-rule, South Ossetia wanted to do the same. However, South Ossetia was not recognised as a nation within the USSR so had no constitutional right of secession. Georgia rightfully claimed South Ossetia remained Georgian.

South Ossetia was governed largely as an autonomous entity within the Georgian federal state (much like how US states can make their own laws and largely self-govern), but it itself considers itself to be a republic (it is not recognised by any international body) and is friendly toward Moscow. Russia sent over peacekeepers to mediate between South Ossetia and Georgia but in actuality sponsored and supported their resistance to the Georgian government.

To make matters worse, the US Army has been supplying and training Georgian forces (under the cover of Georgian involvment in Iraq) and Georgia has had ambitions of joining NATO, an organisation the Russians aren’t too keen on.

Russia for its part has been supplying citizens of South Ossetia with Russian passports and granting them citizenship, in a pretty flagrant violation of Georgian sovereignty. Russia is now using “protecting our citizens” as an excuse to invade the region and attakc Georgia.

All the requirements for a proxy war are there.

At the moment, the West has remained quite sedate. Britain has urged for a ceasefire, France has stated that Russia’s relations with the EU will suffer and the US has condemned the invasion as unacceptable.

The international community is generally united against Russia in condemning Russia’s hostilities:

China called for an “immediate ceasefire”.
United Kingdom urged “an immediate ceasefire and resumption of direct dialogue”.
United States believe the Russians should “show greater restraint” and must “respect Goergia’s territorial integrity”.
A joint statement by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (all nearby to the conflict) “strongly condemns” the “unilateral military actions” of Russia.
In general, the international community stops short of condemning Russia directly but is far from condoning their actions.

In my opinion, Russia couldn’t care less about some nobodies in some tiny little state. It cares more about showing the West that it will not be intimidated and it still has a lot of bite with its bark. Russia has long been distrustful of the West and especially NATO; It isn’t likely to give a damn what we say.

However, Russia ought to be very careful about who it chooses to tangle with. The European Union is an extremely powerful military force and is increasingly well-coordinated and united. The EU has quite some interest in Turkey, which borders Georgia.