Hattix

The tension between Russia and Georgia has finally spilled out into open warfare. Ossetia has its roots as one of the many provinces which united into nations as the Renaissance swept Europe and the near-East. Ossetia, both North and South, were part of the USSR before its dissolution and North Ossetia is now part of Russia, however South Ossetia took a different view. When Georgia exercised its right to self-rule, South Ossetia wanted to do the same. However, South Ossetia was not recognised as a nation within the USSR so had no constitutional right of secession. Georgia rightfully claimed South Ossetia remained Georgian.

South Ossetia was governed largely as an autonomous entity within the Georgian federal state (much like how US states can make their own laws and largely self-govern), but it itself considers itself to be a republic (it is not recognised by any international body) and is friendly toward Moscow. Russia sent over peacekeepers to mediate between South Ossetia and Georgia but in actuality sponsored and supported their resistance to the Georgian government.

To make matters worse, the US Army has been supplying and training Georgian forces (under the cover of Georgian involvment in Iraq) and Georgia has had ambitions of joining NATO, an organisation the Russians aren’t too keen on.

Russia for its part has been supplying citizens of South Ossetia with Russian passports and granting them citizenship, in a pretty flagrant violation of Georgian sovereignty. Russia is now using “protecting our citizens” as an excuse to invade the region and attakc Georgia.

All the requirements for a proxy war are there.

At the moment, the West has remained quite sedate. Britain has urged for a ceasefire, France has stated that Russia’s relations with the EU will suffer and the US has condemned the invasion as unacceptable.

The international community is generally united against Russia in condemning Russia’s hostilities:

China called for an “immediate ceasefire”.
United Kingdom urged “an immediate ceasefire and resumption of direct dialogue”.
United States believe the Russians should “show greater restraint” and must “respect Goergia’s territorial integrity”.
A joint statement by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (all nearby to the conflict) “strongly condemns” the “unilateral military actions” of Russia.
In general, the international community stops short of condemning Russia directly but is far from condoning their actions.

In my opinion, Russia couldn’t care less about some nobodies in some tiny little state. It cares more about showing the West that it will not be intimidated and it still has a lot of bite with its bark. Russia has long been distrustful of the West and especially NATO; It isn’t likely to give a damn what we say.

However, Russia ought to be very careful about who it chooses to tangle with. The European Union is an extremely powerful military force and is increasingly well-coordinated and united. The EU has quite some interest in Turkey, which borders Georgia.