Usefully Useless

It’s important to understand probabilities and statistics, so here’s a whole bunch of them I’ve compiled from various sources.

Death from asteroid or meteorite strike: 1 in 1,960,000,000
Injury due to asteroid or meteorite impact: 1 in 210,000,000
Death due to earthquake (UK): 1 in 120,000,000
Death from anthrax: 1 in 55,053,000
Death from an act of terrorism (2008): 1 in 44,000,000 (note 5)
Death from venom (snake, jellyfish, spider, etc.): 1 in 54,050,000 (note 1)
Death from accidental fall: 1 in 45,000,000 (note 2)
Poisoning by cleaners, paints, other chemicals: 1 in 27,000,000
Death from an act of terrorism (1987): 1 in 19,000,000 (note 5)
Under 16 killed by stranger: 1 in 17,800,000
Any specific combination of 24 coin tosses: 1 in 16,777,216
UK National Lottery, all six numbers: 1 in 13,983,816
Death due to police action: 1 in 11,000,000
Death from salmonella: 1 in 10,587,115
Property damage due to earthquake: 1 in 4,900,000
Under 16 killed by his/her own family: 1 in 4,300,000
Death from lightning strike: 1 in 3,100,000
UK National Lottery, 5 numbers + bonus ball: 1 in 2,330,636
Randomly selected person is a paedophile: 1 in 1,300,000
Death from necrotising fascitis (flesh eating bacteria): 1 in 1,250,000
Death in a plane crash: 1 in 660,000
Royal flush in five card poker: 1 in 649,739
Death in a rail accident: 1 in 525,000
Death by firearm in England and Wales (1990): 1 in 510,000
Death by poisonous gases or vapours: 1 in 495,000
Death by electrocution: 1 in 493,000
Death by a falling object: 1 in 375,000
Death due to MRSA infection (2007): 1 in 300,000
Death by firearm in England and Wales (2007): 1 in 264,000
Death due to being stabbed in Greater London: 1 in 240,000
Death due to lack of healthcare: 1 in 83,720
Death in a residential housefire: 1 in 83,025
UK National Lottery, 5 numbers: 1 in 55,491
Death in a road accident: 1 in 6,500
Death from suicide (England and Wales, 2008): 1 in 4,350
Death from influenza: 1 in 4,100
Death from badly treated diabetes: 1 in 4,000
Death from accidental self-inflicted injury: 1 in 2,900
Death from chronic respiratory disease (asthma, cystic fibrosis, etc.): 1 in 2,200
Death from a stroke: 1 in 1,650
A Dutch dyke will flood in the next year: 1 in 1,250
Odds you will never marry (2007 rate): 1 in 1,200
UK National Lottery, 4 numbers: 1 in 1,032
Thames Barrier will flood in the next year: 1 in 1,000
Death from cancer: 1 in 500
Death from enemy action during active duty: 1 in 480 (note 4)
Death from heart disease: 1 in 390
Sharing a birthday with a randomly selected person: 1 in 370.4 (Note 7)
Being involved in any knife-crime in England and Wales (2005): 1 in 177 (note 8 )
Odds you will marry in the next year (2007 rate): 1 in 111
Britons as a proportion of global population: 1 in 100
UK National Lottery, 3 numbers: 1 in 57
UK National Lottery, any win: 1 in 54
Card deal is any specific card: 1 in 52
Odds police will arrest you for something that isn’t illegal (2009): 1 in 36
You are ill right now: 1 in 30
Home computer being an Apple Mac: 1 in 25
Being on the UK DNA Database: 1 in 19
Next meal is fast-food: 1 in 10
Developing or having an incurable disease of any severity: 1 in 10
PCs having at least one item of malware: 1 in 8
Undergraduate achieving a First: 1 in 7
Driver has an endorsed licence: 1 in 7
Randomly selected couple will be infertile: 1 in 6.7 (Note 6)
Chance you went to church last Sunday: 1 in 6
Die throw is any specific number: 1 in 6
Attending a private funeral in the next year: 1 in 5.6
A randomly selected child is obese: 1 in 5.5
Your front door has a CCTV camera aimed at it: 1 in 5
Odds a 13-17 year old has performed some act which was legally paedophilia: 1 in 4.2 (note 9)
You are obese: 1 in 4.1
Odds you have an illegal item in your household: 1 in 4
Odds that a car driver will break the law during his next journey: 1 in 3.2
Broadband speed is less than half of that advertised: 1 in 3
Black man being on the UK DNA Database: 1 in 2.7
Odds two children in a class of 23 will share a birthday: 1 in 2
Odds your first sexual encounter was legally paedophilia: 1 in 2 (note 3)
You have used illegal drugs: 1 in 1.9

Notes:
1. World-wide.
2. Age dependent.
3. 53% of the population is not virginal at the age of 18 (2009 estimate)
4. Assumes you’re already a soldier.
5. Terrorism deaths that year divided by population that year.
6. Defined as no conception after one year of unprotected sex.
7. It isn’t one in 365 as randomly selected 365 people could have all different birthdays! Given by 1-(365/364).
8. Includes merely carrying a blade longer than 3 inches in a public place
9. From estimated “sexting” rates.

After being published in Lancet in 1998, Dr Andrew Wakefield caused one of the biggest health scares in years. His finding was that the MMR vaccination was closely correlated with, even caused, autism spectrum disorders.

It causes vaccination takeup rates to plummet and caused the deaths of hundreds of children from easily preventable diseases.

Dr. Wakefield failed to disclose that he was being paid by lawyers looking for someone to blame autism on, failed to disclose that he’d paid children £5 at a birthday party for blood samples (hardly clinical accuracy or professional integrity) and carried out invasive tests on children “against their best clinical interest”. The General Medical Council ruling that Wakefield had acted with “callous disregard for any pain they might suffer” and considered the case proven on both counts in a ruling made public yesterday (27th Jan).

As the medical world geared itself up for another ‘thalidomide’ type case in 1999, researchers around the world started to discover that they weren’t able to reproduce Dr. Wakefield’s results. If there was a link between MMR and autism, they couldn’t find it. Nobody could. Only Dr. Wakefield and the lawyers paying him were able to find a link. How surprising is that?

After numerous independent doctors called into question Wakefield’s study, Lancet came out and admitted it didn’t meet standards of integrity and accuracy and should never have been published. Lancet’s reputation took quite a beating in the aftermath.

Even a newspaper got in on the story, bringing up clinical abuses and inconsistencies in the way Wakefield had conducted the study.

The end seems in sight for the corrupt doctor’s career, as he seems certain to be struck off by the General Medical Council as the two and half year investigation draws to a close, with a verdict of “serious professional misconduct” being almost predetermined at this point.

In the end, science roots out bad eggs due to its distributed, competitive and independent nature. But there’ll always be bad eggs in science or any field of human endeavour.

Go here to read about the story if you like. I’m not about to go into the event, but instead why it’s happened.

Why would anyone want to contaminate milk with melamine? What’s there to gain?

Usually milk is tested for concentration, to ensure it isn’t watered down or adulterated, and this is done by testing its protein content. Watered down milk, or milk powder cut with flour, will contain less protein as it contains less milk.

The standard test done is simply measuring nitrogen content, since in milk most of the nitrogen is in protein. Protein in milk is usually around 15% nitrogen by mass. However, melamine is 66% nitrogen by mass and so can be added in to watered down milk to make it appear to be undiluted.

Normally this would be almost undetectable, without specific reason to test for melamine. Melamine is about as toxic as normal table salt, you could drink melamine contaminated milk every day for your whole adult life and merely have a heightened risk of kidney stones, nobody would notice without specifically testing for it

It’s fraud, plainly and simply. By passing off the milk as undiluted and passing off animal feed as higher in protein than it is, the companies who buy the stuff to use it are being ripped off.

Melamine itself is harmless, but mix it with cyanuric acid (again totally harmless) and the two form melamine cyanurate, which is insoluble and forms crystals in the kidneys, kidney stones. An adult’s kidney is large enough to simply expel the crystals before they grow any larger, but a baby (or small animal) cannot.

If melamine contaminated milk finds its way into infant formula, then the problems start. A baby’s kidney will form melamine cyanurate itself, infants do not have the same kidney function or renal chemistry that adults (and older children) do, meaning melamine is much more harmful, rapidly forming kidney stones which can prove fatal in babies.

It’s not just milk formula, however. Other products tested and sold by protein content are also known to have been contaminated in the 2006-2008 timeframe, such as animal feed. This is harmless to humans, but did kill 1,500 raccoon dogs being bred for fur and can find its way into eggs produced from chickens fed with contaminated feed.

China already sentenced two people to death for their part in the 2008 scandal (which affected 300,000 children, hospitalised 50,000 of them and killed six) , it’s likely more will follow. China is very protective of its booming export trade and will deal very harshly with people or companies which threaten confidence in its exports.

Jim McCormick, director of the company ATSC, was yesterday (Friday 23rd) arrested on suspicion of fraud by misrepresentation.

For around £30,000, he would sell you an “explosives detector” (Iraq spent about £52 million on them) which worked using the “body’s own static electricity” for power. The device had a wand on a loose hinge and “detector cards” would slot into the base to make it detect different things, in ATSC’s claims anything from TNT to semtex to elephants with the ADE-651 (the device in question). I didn’t make that last one up.

Except that BBC’s Newsnight got hold of one of the cards, one for TNT, and had it analysed. It turned out to be nothing more than a simple retail anti-theft tag. In essence, the device is a dowsing rod, which have never been shown to work any better than dumb chance in any trial. Iraq has ordered an investigation, the UK has banned their export and Mr McCormick is looking at time behind bars.

I’d like to know what the hell Iraq was thinking of? The FBI had had warnings out since 1995 not to use “bogus explosives detectors”, the ADE-651 had never passed a single effectiveness test and James Randi offered McCormick his $1 million USD prize for proof of paranormal power should the ADE-651 pass a controlled effectiveness trial.

All the warning signs were there, yet Iraq still blew £52 million on a piece of plastic, a few clothes tags and a bent coathanger which was even claimed by its own vendors to operate in a “non-scientific” way.

Ever watched Mad Max (Road Warrior in some territories), the Mel Gibson-led movie set in Australia which won pretty much every award around? Three Kings, a glorious drama with George Clooney? What about Fight Club, the meme-spawning classic with Brad Pitt? How about Bruno, Cohen’s latest comic masterpiece? What about Blade Runner, Ridley Scott’s glorious sci-fi adventure?

You have? You’ve actually seen one of these forbidden films?

Congratulations, you’re a vile fetishist and a danger to society. According to Australian lawmakers, in a law passed to cover “violent pornographic fetishism” and to “protect children”, any movie with an R18+ rating (BBFC 18 here) cannot be promoted, advertised or displayed. Such movies must be displayed in “plain packaging”, which is defined as a blank cover with merely the name of the movie displayed.

Organisations such as the Labour Party (who have already banned “violent pornography” with a wonderfully broad definition which means the Sharon Stone movie “Basic Instinct” is now technically illegal), Conservative Party and Internet Watch Foundation seek to bring such laws to the UK. Should we support them?

Think back to June 2007, when Britain flooded pretty much top to bottom. That has the same underlying cause as the big freeze of 2009-2010. What cause would that be? Global warming.

Surely I have to be making some kind of bad joke?

Absolutely not. Let me explain.

Britain’s climate is controlled by the jet stream, in the winter it hovers over Britain, deflecting air masses which would otherwise be coming down from the Arctic, the jet stream’s moist but not so cold air from the North Atlantic (warmed by the Gulf Stream). This keeps us much warmer than our latitude would suggest, after all, we are as far north as Moscow, Edmonton and Minsk and further north than Winnipeg.

(Note: This is why usually in winter when we have snow, it’s when easterly or south easterly winds bring up air masses from the continent and it’s the source of the phrase ‘it’s too cold for snow’, since when it really gets cold in Britain, it’s usually a stationary winter anticyclone)

However, the jet stream never came north this winter, it remained over the Mediterranean, giving Spain some terrible floods in December 2009. Without the jet stream protecting us, the northerly winds from the Arctic could freely blow south over Britain, giving us the sort of weather our northerly latitude would otherwise consider to be perfectly normal.

Why would such a thing happen?

The jet stream changes course as it cools from summer to winter, but the jet stream was too warm to head north, so it remained in its summer position. Back in 2007 a similar thing happened, the jet stream didn’t cool down enough in the winter (2006-2007 was an exceptionally mild winter) to head south for the summer, so remained over us in its winter position and dumped off a ton of rain from the North Atlantic which gave Spain a hell of a bad drought and was meant to be distributed across the Mediterranean as far as Egypt, instead we got it all.

The same problem both times: The jet stream was too warm.

Click here. It’s a video clip which you’re not allowed to view due to a copyright claim from BBC Worldwide. The clip is Top Gear related stuff, as far as I’m aware it was never shown on the show.

Since as a UK resident and licence fee payer, I have automatic right to view BBC content, I’m wondering what the hell they’re playing at.

Up in Scotland, the Scottish National Party has been in control of a minority government for a while now, a great laboratory for us to examine how well a populist party does when in power.

The Scottish First Minister had promised school class sizes of 18 or less and free school meals for the first three years of primary school. He also introduced a programme of non-essential medical procedures and screenings, against the advice of senior medical officers.

Populist stuff, basically. Telling the people what they want to hear without regard for how achievable or realistic it may or may not be.

The SNP government has failed to meet both commitments on education and managed to create a £100 million shortfall in health funding, and now blames the financial crisis for it. However, as far back as July 2007 (when the economy was booming), officials were on record stating that the manifesto was unrealistic and not affordable.

Democracy, sadly, is a means and method by which the people get the government they deserve. The Scottish people voted SNP in and now they’re getting what they deserve. When a single-issue bunch of incompetent whiners gets into power, is there any wonder the government they create is so bad?

Hard-line extremism seems to be everywhere. Stop them talking about who’s god is bigger than who else’s, and you’ll find the BNP and Iran have a lot to agree on. Far-right extremist parties are popping up all over the place, typically playing on the hyped-up “Islamisation” card to convince people that doing as the Muslims do is a good thing, sacrificing your own freedom for some “greater good”. It doesn’t make much sense when put like that, does it?

The latest band of gullible idiots comes to you from Switzerland. Newcomers to the extremist brigade, the Swiss have recently decided that they’re going to ban minarets. Yes, you read me right, minarets. So much for the Swiss’ muchly bragged about “direct democracy” protecting the rights of the people, how can it protect the minorities from the tyranny of the majority?

The Swiss apparently agree with Iran that banning the construction of religious buildings they don’t like is the way forward. As Iran doesn’t permit the construction of Christian churches, the Swiss believe the Muslims are worth copying, so have pretty much banned the construction of Mosques.

Here’s a hint, you idiots, if you want to fight something you don’t generally accept and copy their beliefs!

So while Europe seems to be busy converting to extremism, is there really any need for external threats like the Taleban anymore? We’re quite capable of destroying ourselves, thankyou very much.

It’s just before dawn and you’re getting out of bed, ready to shower, make breakfast and go to work.

Just then, government forces with submachine guns break down your door and forcibly bundle you into a vehicle with blacked out windows. You’re taken to jail on suspicion of a crime – They think you’re a subversive, you might believe things the government says you’re not allowed to, but you’re not allowed to know what.

You’re denied bail and you still don’t know what it is you’re supposed to have done. The government considers the evidence to be secret, such that you can’t see it. Your access to a lawyer is only a few minutes a week, even if he was able to prepare a defence for you, which he’s not allowed to do.

Which country are you in? Iran? Zimbabwe? Maybe Orwell’s fictional 1984 dystopia?

No, you’re in Britain. Manchester, to be specific.

It took senior judges to point out the clear injustice and absurdity of what happened when, to two men from Manchester, this ostensibly western government turned on them.